The hottest international trade protection has not

2022-08-26
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International trade protection has not affected the aniline Market for the time being

India's anti-dumping investigation on aniline, the special protection case of the United States and other foreign trade protection have not had much impact on China's aniline Market for the time being. In September, the domestic aniline production hit a new high since this year, and the market also maintained a steady running trend, with the mainstream transaction price of 8900 ~ 9000 yuan (ton price, the same below); Although with the sharp fluctuation of the international and domestic pure benzene market, the domestic aniline market fell back to 8500 ~ 8600 yuan at the end of September, this market adjustment is an active fall adjustment; From the National Day holiday to October 19, due to the rise of raw materials, the price of aniline has increased slightly by 200 yuan. Based on the current situation of enterprises in the domestic aniline industry chain and the overall post chemical digital display electronic tensile testing machine, which can detect the stretching, tearing, peeling, tightening, bending, shearing, bursting, puncturing, fatigue and other projects of metal materials, non-metal and high molecular materials, and the current situation of the warming market, the aniline Market will remain stable and good after finishing

trade protection has not affected the market for the time being.

India's domestic industry recently filed an application with the anti dumping Bureau of the Ministry of Commerce and industry of India to initiate an anti-dumping investigation on aniline originating in China, the European Union and the United States. The enterprises involved in China are Nanhua (Shanghai) company. It is understood that Nanhua company only exported 242 tons of aniline to India in June last year, and this order of goods was purchased by India itself. Since then, Sinochem has not conducted export operations to India. Judging from the current global aniline Market, China's annual imports of aniline are still far greater than exports. According to statistics, China imported 1) the plasticity of ceramic materials is very limited from January to July. Aniline is 30430 tons, and exports 4300 tons. The import volume is 7.1 times of the export volume. And from the average calculation of the cost of aniline in China over the years, it is not difficult to see that the production cost of aniline in China is higher than that in foreign countries most of the time, which is also one of the main reasons why China imports a large amount of aniline every year. Therefore, the implementation of anti-dumping on China's aniline is impossible, and will not have any impact on China's aniline Market

in mid September, the United States passed the special tire warranty case, which affected China's auxiliary industry to a certain extent. The demand for aniline in the field of additives accounts for 19% of its total output, which affects the changes of aniline Market to a certain extent. However, from the current development status of the global automobile industry and China's automobile industry, the total demand for tires is gradually increasing, which is only the differences and differences in the distribution of international markets among countries. The demand trend for additives in the future is unchanged, and China is the world's largest manufacturer of additives. Therefore, the impact of the special warranty on the domestic additives industry is limited, or short-term, and will not affect the growth of demand for aniline, It will not significantly affect the aniline Market

raw material price shocks affected the market

affected by the continuous decline of international pure benzene prices, the ex factory price of domestic pure benzene market has also been reduced. For example, in the international pure benzene market, FOB Korean spot closed at $697.5 on October 2, with a weekly decline of 9%; Since September 27, the listing price of Sinopec in China has also been reduced by 400 yuan to 5500 yuan in a week, a decrease of 7%, forming the largest decline in pure benzene in the past two months. Based on the principle of synchronous price adjustment with pure benzene, the aniline industry has adjusted the ex factory price in a timely manner. However, there is still a difference between this price adjustment and the previous market decline, that is, this price adjustment is not caused by the decline in demand or the sharp increase in production, but by the active fall and consolidation on the basis of the new record of annual production in the current month and the positive downstream demand

the recovery of downstream consumption is expected to continue

according to statistics, the domestic aniline production in September was 74400 tons, a new high this year, with a month on month increase of 26%, 2.11 times that of the beginning of the year. On this basis, the average domestic price of aniline in that month was more than 8800 yuan. Excluding the factor of raw material decline, it basically maintained a stable upward trend. Judging from the start-up of downstream enterprises in September, the demand for downstream products has an increasing trend. For example, the start-up of MDI enterprises, the main consumer products, increased steadily; Auxiliary enterprises increased the demand for aniline, and the operating rate increased; The rise of the dye and pharmaceutical industry has also led to the recovery of the market of some dyes and pharmaceutical intermediates. For example, the operating rate of domestic enterprises such as p-Aminobenzene Sulfonic Acid and antipyretic ice has also increased significantly compared with the previous period, increasing the purchase of p-aniline; At the same time, pesticide enterprises are about to enter the peak production season, which also drives the rise of market demand. Comprehensive factors form a strong support for the demand of the month

according to industry statistics, aniline maintained a stable operation pattern of volume increase and price in the third quarter of this year. In addition, on the basis of hitting a new high of annual output in September, the price basically maintained the influence of factors such as mold structure and forming conditions (excluding raw material adjustment factors), reflecting that the aniline Market has entered a virtuous cycle channel, and the overall improvement is expected to continue. It is suggested that enterprises should continue to improve the stable price system of the industry and take emergency measures to deal with market changes; Maintain the current operating rate, ensure the smooth transportation, and avoid the increase of price difference between regions due to transportation problems; Continue to deepen the communication mechanism between enterprises, respond to foreign trade protection policies for China's aniline industry in the future, and take precautions

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